India’s parliamentary committee on foreign affairs has identified the current political and security situation in Bangladesh as New Delhi’s most serious strategic challenge since 1971 Liberation War, underscoring concerns that developments in Dhaka could reshape regional alignments and affect Bangladesh’s future trajectory.

In a report led by Congress MP Shashi Tharoor, the committee noted that while Bangladesh is unlikely to descend into chaos or anarchy, the ongoing changes represent a deeper, long-term shift.

The panel traced the unrest to a combination of factors, including the rise of Islamist extremism, increasing Chinese and Pakistani influence and the collapse of long-standing political dominance of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League.

Comparing the present situation with 1971, the committee said that the earlier crisis was existential, centred on humanitarian catastrophe and the birth of a new nation, whereas the current challenge is more profound in nature; describing it as a “generational discontinuity” involving a fundamental change in political order and a possible strategic realignment away from India.

The report warned that if India fails to recalibrate its approach, it risks losing strategic space in Dhaka not through conflict, but by becoming irrelevant.

It highlighted growing concerns over Bangladesh’s evolving relationship with Pakistan and China’s expanding footprint, particularly in infrastructure development, port expansion and defence cooperation.

Projects such as the expansion of Mongla Port, developments at Lalmonirhat airbase and submarine base at Pekua were cited as examples of Beijing’s increasing involvement.

The committee also noted that China has been engaging with a wide spectrum of political actors in Bangladesh, including Jamaat-e-Islami, which was previously banned but has since regained its electoral registration and ability to contest elections.

At the same time, the panel expressed concern that Bangladesh’s interim government has imposed restrictions on Awami League, preventing it from participating in elections.

It cautioned that any election held without Awami League would raise serious questions about inclusiveness and legitimacy.

From a Bangladeshi perspective, the report’s observations come amid heightened regional scrutiny of Dhaka’s political transition, its foreign policy orientation and internal security dynamics.

The committee recommended that India closely monitor any attempts by foreign powers to establish military footholds in Bangladesh, while also offering Dhaka competitive advantages in development cooperation, connectivity and port access.